What floor and ceiling mean in GIQ projections
A projection is one number. A decision usually depends on more than one number. GIQ keeps a likely range around the central projection so users can see how differently two similar averages can be distributed.
The projection is the center of the decision
GIQ's projected points are the main expected season outcome under the selected scoring format. Points per game is shown separately because expected games matter: two players with similar season totals may have different per-game strength if one is projected to miss more time.
The floor is not a guarantee
The likely floor is a downside context around the projection, not a promise that the player cannot finish below it. Football has injuries, role changes and extreme outcomes. The floor is meant to help compare the shape of risk under the assumptions currently in the model.
The ceiling is not a best-case fantasy
The likely ceiling is also bounded. It is not “what happens if every touchdown goes right.” It is an upside context around the central expectation so a manager can compare a stable profile with one that has more room above the projection.
Examples from the top of the current PPR board
| Player | Projection | PPG | Floor | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 359.1 | 22.3 | 282 | 438 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 330.8 | 21.3 | 249 | 414 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 338.0 | 21.5 | 248 | 430 |
| Puka Nacua | 329.4 | 21.5 | 234 | 426 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 300.1 | 20.4 | 218 | 384 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 316.9 | 19.6 | 230 | 406 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 296.4 | 19.5 | 216 | 378 |
| De'Von Achane | 288.3 | 18.5 | 217 | 361 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 312.0 | 19.6 | 229 | 396 |
| James Cook | 271.1 | 17.0 | 201 | 342 |
How to use the range
When two players are close, a manager chasing ceiling may prefer the profile with more upside above projection, while a roster that already has volatile players may prefer a stronger floor. Quick Pick can learn those tiebreakers for a personal board, but True GIQ remains unchanged.
Why ranges can change
Availability, role security, depth-chart changes and new information can alter the width or center of the range. A new projection release can therefore change a player's floor and ceiling even if his overall rank barely moves.